In chapter 17 of Small Stakes Hold’em, the authors explain why folding strong hands on the river in big pots is one of the most expensive mistakes a player can make, and why calling is usually correct even when the board looks scary.
The Trap of “Good Laydowns”
Many players pride themselves on making big folds. While this can be useful in small pots, it becomes dangerous when the pot is large. In a big pot, even a small chance of winning is worth a call, because the reward is so high relative to the final bet. Saving one bet by folding rarely makes up for the times you would have won the whole pot.
Pot Odds Dominate the Decision
When the pot is large, you often need to win only a tiny percentage of the time for a call to be profitable. If there are ten or more bets in the middle and it costs one bet to call, winning just a small fraction of the time makes calling correct. This means you should not require strong certainty that you are ahead—only that you are not almost certainly beaten.
Scary Boards Do Not Mean You Must Fold
Rivers that complete straights, flushes, or both are frightening, but they do not justify folding by themselves. In loose games, many players chase draws that never arrive, misread their hands, or bluff when they miss. Others call down with weak holdings that suddenly look strong to them. Even when the board looks terrible, your opponents’ ranges are often much wider than you think.
Why Opponent Tendencies Matter
Calling stations cannot be “read” in the usual way because they call with almost everything. Aggressive players bluff far more often than most people expect, especially in large pots where they feel desperate or see a chance to steal. Because of this, you almost never have the kind of certainty needed to fold a strong hand for one bet.
The Real Cost of Folding
Calling and losing one bet with a second-best hand is not a disaster. Folding a hand that would have won a huge pot is. In big pots, the mistake of folding a winner outweighs many small calling errors combined.
Final Takeaway
When the pot is large and you hold a reasonably strong hand, you should almost always call on the river, even if everything seems to have gone wrong. You need overwhelming evidence that you are beaten before folding. In loose small-stakes games, that level of certainty almost never exists.