Chapter 9 of Play Optimal Poker 2 by Andrew Brokos: Attacking a Missed Continuation Bet

In chapter 9 of Play Optimal Poker 2, Andrew Brokos explains what really happens when the pre-flop raiser checks back the flop—why that isn’t an automatic green light to “attack the missed c-bet,” and how the big blind should actually build turn betting and checking ranges in this spot.

---

Big Idea: A “Missed C-Bet” Is Not Free Money

Brokos starts by dismantling the usual myth:

• A flop check from the pre-flop raiser is not automatically weak at equilibrium.

• A strong player’s flop check-back range:

  • Is often condensed, but

  • Still contains many reasonably strong hands and good draws.

• As the big blind (Opal), you:

  • Are out of position,

  • Often still at a slight equity disadvantage overall,

  • Can’t just start blasting the pot with any two cards.

Your job on the turn is to:

• Use polarized, leveraged bets in the right places,

• Deny equity to marginal hands in the raiser’s checking range,

• But still maintain a solid checking range and avoid spewing from OOP.

---

After Flop Checks Through: Who Has the Advantage?

Scenario:
Ivan raises UTG, Opal calls BB, flop is 9♥ 7♦ 6♥, both check. Turn can be 7♥, A♣, 8♠, or 2♦.

Pre-turn Equity & Nuts Advantage

• After Ivan checks back:

  • Opal has slightly more equity (~52.5%),

  • And a nuts advantage:

    • She still has hands like 66 and T8s,

    • Ivan’s checking range is more condensed and generally weaker than his betting range would have been.

Opal even slightly over-realizes her equity, which confirms that her range has more top-end power relative to Ivan’s checking range.

---

How Different Turns Affect Opal’s Strategy

Equity vs EV vs Betting Frequency

Brokos looks at how Opal’s position changes across turn cards.

1. Best equity:

   • Js, Ts, 8s, and many small blanks.

   • Aces are terrible for her equity:

     • Ivan checks back a lot of Ax on the flop,

     • So A turns heavily favor him.

2. Best EV:

   • Often small/medium cards that don’t obviously favor Ivan.

   • Hearts and diamonds (bringing flush pressure) reduce her EV, because:

     • Ivan can defend better when a lot of his equity is wrapped up in flush draws.

3. Betting frequency:

   • Correlates more with EV than raw equity.

   • Example: a small blank like 5♣ may be a great spot to bet a lot, even if 5♥ gives slightly better equity:

     • On 5♥ Ivan’s flush-based equity is easier to defend,

     • On 5♣ his marginal hands are more exposed to being pushed off.

4. Overbets:

   • Opal overbets most frequently on non-heart face cards (e.g. J♣, Q♣, K♠).

   • Why? Those cards:

     • Strengthen Ivan’s range,

     • Make her marginal hands less suited to thin, small bets,

     • Force her into a polarized betting strategy where large bets are best.

5. Check-raising vs a turn bet:

   • Facing a $10 bet (75% pot), she check-raises the most on cards like J♣/J♠:

     • These improve Ivan enough that he bets more,

     • But they don’t erase her nuts advantage.

   • Overall, after flop checks through, she doesn’t check-raise much:

     • More often just bets her strong hands on the turn,

     • Uses a relatively weak, condensed checking range but one that Ivan can’t easily crush because he weakened himself by checking flop.

---

Scenario 1: Turn Is 7♥ – Should Opal “Attack”?

Board: 9♥ 7♦ 6♥ – 7♥ (flop checked through).

Equity & Nuts Advantage

• Opal still has equity edge (~52.6%).

• She also clearly has the nuts advantage:

  • She’s the only one with T♥ 8♥,

  • She has more full houses and strong draws;

  • Ivan often would have bet his sets on the flop.

But Does She Blast? No.

• Despite her advantages, Opal checks more than 80% of her range.

• Why?

  • She’s out of position,

  • Ivan’s checking range still contains many strong hands, especially overpairs,

  • If she bets too much, she ends up playing big pots OOP with marginal holdings.

Facing a Turn Bet

If she checks and Ivan bets $10:

• She almost never raises (<2%).

• She splits the rest roughly 50/50 between calling and folding:

  • Hands around 65 are indifferent.

  • Better than that calls,

  • Worse than that folds unless they have a heart, which can turn them into profitable calls.

• Even hands like AT with two overs and a gutshot fold without a heart:

  • Because river straights won’t be very “nutty” on this texture.

Bet Size: When She Bets, She Goes Big

• She uses the $26 (200% pot) overbet far more often than the $10 bet.

• Reason: she’s betting a heavily polarized range:

  • Strong hands that want stacks in,

  • Bluffs that want max fold equity.

• Marginal hands aren’t strong enough for thin-value/protection bets anyway, so the mid-size bet has less utility.

Pure Bets vs Pure Checks

• Pure bets:

  • Only full houses and better (boats and the straight flush).

  • These hands crush Ivan’s condensed range and want to immediately build big pots.

  • She doesn’t rely on check-raising because Ivan won’t bet often enough when checked to.

• Pure checks:

  • Marginal hands with modest showdown value:

    • Pairs, decent high-card hands,

    • Most flushes are pure checks!

  • Even strong flushes fare better as checks here:

    • Turn overbet builds a pot that only very strong hands continue in,

    • If called, she can almost never value bet river again.

    • It’s better to:

      • Check turn,

      • Value bet river (with no leverage behind the bet),

      • Allow weaker hands to call more often.

• Which strong hands go into checking range?

  • For full houses, she mixes a few:

    • 77 always bets (doesn’t block Ivan’s 9x and 8x that will call).

    • Some 99, 97, T♥ 8♥ are occasional checks:

      • To keep nutty hands in her checking range,

      • While not blocking too many of the 2nd-best hands that pay her off.

• Bluff candidates:

  • Primarily weak hands that:

    • Have little showdown value in a checked-down pot,

    • Sometimes hold a heart or straight draw but don’t need one.

  • Gutshots with no realistic showdown value are common bluffs.

  • Some AJ with a heart, QJ, etc., are used as semi-bluffs or pure bluffs, depending on suits.

---

Scenario 2: Turn Is 2♦ – Attacking a “Blank”

Board: 9♥ 7♦ 6♥ – 2♦, flop checked through.

Equity & Nuts Advantage

• Opal still has a solid equity edge (~52.9%).

• Her nuts advantage is even stronger:

  • Ivan rarely checked strong hands on the flop,

  • A “blank” turn strengthens her relative position: his range is now even more capped.

Despite that…

She Still Mostly Checks

• Opal only bets around one-third of the time at equilibrium.

• Reason:

  • A fairly limited number of hands strong enough to bet for value,

  • She needs some of those strong hands in her checking range to avoid being easily exploited,

  • That constrains how many bluffs she can include → lowers betting frequency.

When She Bets: Split Between Small and Large

• She bets both $10 and $26:

  • ~20% of hands with 75% pot,

  • ~13% of hands with 200% pot.

• Her large-bet range is more polarized:

  • Sets and straights,

  • Nut flush draws and top-end semi-bluffs,

  • Some Ace-high bluffs with strong blockers (e.g., A♥ T♦, A♦ T♣).

Value & Bluff Structure

• Highest-frequency value bets:

  • Sets and straights, especially those that don’t block Ivan’s likely bluff-catchers:

    • 66 and 22 are great overbet candidates,

    • 99 is more often checked or used to “trap” with smaller bets because it blocks 9x in his calling range.

• Pure checks:

  • Hands too strong to bluff but not strong enough for thin value:

    • AK, AQ, J9, small pairs, etc.

• Strong hands in checking range:

  • Again, she often checks 99 to:

    • Induce over-aggression from Ivans who think her range is capped,

    • Set up profitable check-raises vs players who bet too often when they think she never has it.

• Bluff candidates:

  • Strong combo draws,

  • Hands with good blockers but poor showdown value:

    • KJ with hearts or diamonds,

    • OESDs with weak pairs or nothing (98 better than 88/87),

    • A-highs turned into bluffs for big sizing:

      • These go in the overbet bluff bucket because the only way to fold better hands is to go large.

---

Exploiting a Truly Weak Checking Range

Brokos then shifts to exploitative play: what if Ivan’s flop strategy is bad?

Assume:

• Ivan always bets:

  • Any pair,

  • Any flush draw,

  • Any open-ender (JT),

• And always checks:

  • All weaker hands without draws.

So his:

• Betting range = very strong & high-equity draws,

• Checking range = mostly junk and marginal hands.

Exploiting His Bets

When he bets the flop:

• His range is far from polarized — it’s just strong.

• Opal should:

  • Fold a lot, even hands like QQ,

  • Raise a narrow, polarized range for equity denial versus his semi-bluffs.

Because he has almost no true air, there’s little incentive to “hero call”; the EV of folding is high.

Exploiting His Checks

When he checks:

• His checking range is extremely weak and capped.

• On many turns, Opal’s exploitative strategy:

  • Overbets super frequently, sometimes with her entire range on certain cards,

  • Picks up the pot uncontested on a large share of runouts,

  • Or gets massive value when she has it.

In solver output:

• On many turns, her EV approaches the full pot ($13),

• Ivan only retains reasonable EV on turns that massively improve his checking range (like A).

Takeaway:

• Against real opponents who:

  • Bet “all their good stuff” and all obvious draws,

  • Check back only weak/marginal hands,

• You can bomb almost any turn after a check, especially with a polarized range and big sizing.

---

Practical “Test Yourself” Takeaways

On boards like T♥ 8♥ 3♥ – 2♦, after both players check the flop:

• Some hands that look like “obvious checks” are actually high-frequency small bets:

  • Sets like 3♣3♠:

    • Target marginal hands and draws,

    • Want calls from weaker holdings,

    • Don’t want to overbet and only get action from flushes and bigger sets.

• The nuts (like A♥ J♥):

  • Can be overbet,

  • And can also be split across multiple bet sizes for range construction flexibility.

• Weak draws (9♦7♦, 6♦5♦):

  • Make nice small bluffs:

    • They gain from folds,

    • Don’t want massive pots where their draws might not stay live.

• Marginal showdown hands (J♣J♠, A♦Q♦, A♥K♦):

  • Often check:

    • They have too much showdown value to be small bluffs,

    • Not enough strength to bet big for value,

    • Benefit from preserving their equity and seeing rivers cheaply.

---

Key Lessons from Chapter 9

Brokos closes with some general principles you can actually apply:

1. A Flop Check Is Not Automatically Weak

• At equilibrium, a flop check-back from the pre-flop raiser means:

  • Condensed but not garbage,

  • If you bomb every turn, you’ll torch money against a competent player.

2. “Bombing the Turn” Is an Exploit, Not a Default

• Overbetting the turn after a missed c-bet is powerful only if:

  • Villain over-bets their strong hands and draws on the flop,

  • And leaves their check-back range under-protected.

• Against balanced flop strategies like Ivan’s, you must be selective and mostly check.

3. Don’t Slowplay as the Big Blind

• Once villain checks back flop:

  • Their range is capped,

  • You usually have to be the one to build the pot with your monsters.

• Full houses and effective nuts usually want to bet big on the turn rather than relying on villain to bet.

4. Bluffing With Showdown Value: Go Big or Don’t Bluff

• If your hand can win unimproved, it rarely wants to be a small bluff:

  • Small bluff = only folds very weak hands, which you already beat.

  • If you do bluff such hands, use large sizing to actually fold better hands.

5. Bigger Bets Need Better Draws and Better Blockers

• Small bluffs can come from weak junk and low-quality draws.

• Large bluffs should come from:

  • Strong draws,

  • Hands that block villains’ best calls,

  • Combos that can still win when called.